UK Railway Industry Macro Trends
Service Design | Strategy | 2024-2025
[ Hellon |Consultancy Porject ]
About Client
The client is a national organisation responsible for shaping the future of UK rail. Acting as a central body during a period of major reform, they are setting the direction for how the rail system will operate, with a strong focus on long-term customer experience and strategic coordination.
Team
Andreas Pattichis
Lotta Julkunen
Olivia Li
Timeline
3 Month
Project Overview
This project explored how rail travel in the UK should evolve over the next 5–10 years. The focus was on fares, ticketing, and retail—three core areas that shape the everyday experience of rail passengers. As the industry faces rapid change, understanding future needs has become critical for designing resilient and relevant customer journeys.
Why this project...
The Challenge
How might we translate complex global trends into actionable, customer-focused insights that support the client’s long-term strategic decision-making across multiple programs?
My Role
I independently gathered and analysed a large volume of trend data within a short timeframe. I helped turn complex information into clear, relevant insights—shaping narratives that supported the client’s strategic direction. While taking ownership of key tasks, I also collaborated closely with the team and responded quickly to client feedback to ensure our work stayed aligned and impactful.
Conducted in-depth trend research and analysis
Synthesised insights into macro trends and key themes
Developed frameworks to prioritise trends by impact and relevance
Created tools to support strategic decision-making
(e.g. Future-Proofing Canvas)Aligned trend insights with programme goals and future customer needs
Designed visual and narrative formats to communicate complex findings
Project Objectives
To help client design future-proofed customer experiences by identifying key macro trends and turning them into practical, strategic insights. This included creating the Future-Proofing Canvas—a tool to assess how well new services meet future passenger needs—and guiding long-term decisions with clear, prioritised trends.
Outcome
Turning Macro Trends into Actionable Insights for Future Customer Experience Design
We identified the 10 most relevant and high-certainty macro trends shaping customer experience and retail services in the rail industry. The trend report distilled complex future signals into clear, actionable insights. To support confident long-term planning, we developed the Future-Proofing Canvas—a practical tool that enables the client to independently assess how well their solutions align with future customer needs.
Outcome 1: 2025 Macro trends report
Future-Proofing tool
Outcome 2: Future-Proofing Canvas
The Future-Proofing Canvas is a strategic tool designed to help teams assess how well their service or solution meets future customer needs, particularly in the context of fares, ticketing, and retail. It supports long-term planning by:
Highlighting relevant macro trends expected over the next 5–10 years
Encouraging reflection on risks, opportunities, and unmet needs
Building a shared understanding of how "future-proof" a proposition really is
Impact Summary
The work enabled the client to assess and refine service propositions with a long-term perspective, supporting the development of future-ready customer experiences. It helped inform strategic planning, guided evaluation of service uptake potential, and fostered a shared understanding of future risks, needs, and opportunities. Governance recommendations were also provided to embed the canvas into ongoing processes and ensure its sustained impact.
"I’ve shared the Future Trends work with our tech team, and they see it as a valuable tool for assessing their projects. The carefully selected trends, along with the associated customer needs, help us focus on what truly matters when shaping future solutions."
---Propositions & Insights Lead
Design Process
A simplified version of how I got there
The project involved AI-empowered research across local and global contexts, covering the rail sector and other relevant industries. Working closely with the client, we had weekly check-ins and held two online workshops and one in-person session to co-create and refine the trend narrative and future-proofing tools.
Trends Discovery
34 credible sources across global, transport, and rail trends were analysed, leading to the initial identification of 92 trends. These were then filtered and clustered through a prioritisation process to highlight the insights with the greatest relevance and impact for the client.
I use AI to quickly gather relevant reports, news, and other online resources, and to efficiently extract key content from them.
AI tools: ChatGPT, Google Gemini, Perplexity.ai
How we identified the most relevant trends for the client’s context
Filter system
Macro trends selection framework
We developed a two-level filter system to assess whether each trend was relevant to the client’s context, with a focus on customer and retail experience.
Filtering level 1:
Is the trend relevant to the client?
Filtering lever 2:
Level of client control
(Low / Medium / High)
Certainty of the trend
Source credibility
Appears in multiple sources?
Timeframe (Longer = more uncertainty)
Potential impact on client’s
Impact on customers
Impact on staff
Yes,
relevant to Client’s Context
Maybe?
Let’s discuss
No,
Not relevant to Client’s Context
Cluster similar trends into groups
Similar trends were then grouped into insights, which were refined into 14 initial macro trends for a review workshop with the client to gather feedback and guide further development.
Miro Board process
Why we have Mega trends and Macro trends
Defining Mega Trends and Macro Trends
To understand the future of UK railway industry, we used a two-tiered trend framework: Mega trends and Macro trends.
Mega Trends
Mega trends are long-term, global shifts—broad forces like climate change or urbanisation that shape the world over decades. They provide the big-picture context for how society, technology, and economies are evolving.
Macro Trends
Macro trends are industry-specific shifts observed over a medium-term horizon (5–10 years). They reflect how mega trends translate into more practical, near-future changes within the UK rail industry—shaping customer expectations, operations, and innovation.
How they are linked
Macro trends are built on the foundation of mega trends. For example:
Seamless Multimodal Mobility
(Macro)
Urbanisation
(Mega)
Accelerated Technology
(Mega)
The Shift to Fluid Lifestyles
(Macro)
This connection ensures that each macro trend is grounded in a long-term global force, but made relevant to the client’s context.
How we measured each trend’s relevance and impact for the client
Define Certainty Level
To build confidence in each macro trend, we followed a structured process.
We started by creating a Macro Trends Selection Framework/Criteria, which informed a filter system (Yes, Maybe, No) to identify trends relevant to client. Similar trends were clustered and shared as preliminary macro trends, each including a headline, description, and source.
We gathered feedback from FTR stakeholders to assess relevance, which helped shape the final selection.
To evaluate the certainty level, we used Google Gemini to analyse each trend across multiple factors such as:
Technological Feasibility,
Regulatory Landscape,
Market Adoption,
Economic and Social Impact
Uncertainties.
Through multiple iterations of co-creation with FTR stakeholders, we refined the trend narratives and adjusted certainty levels based on their input.
Macro trend example
What’s in a Macro Trend Card
Each macro trend card gives a clear snapshot of a trend and what it means for the Fares, Ticketing & Retail programme. The cards are designed to be easy to read and quickly show what matters most.
Here’s what each card includes:
The Future-Proofing Canvas (Highlight a Tangible Output)
How to Use the Future-Proofing Canvas
The Future-Proofing Tool helps the client evaluate how well their solutions align with future customer needs, particularly from the perspective of customer and retail experience. It offers a lens to assess and refine solutions with a future-focused approach.
Priority Criteria
The Role of Prioritisation Criteria
Prioritisation criteria are essential to determine which macro trends are most significant and should be the focus of the future-proofing efforts. By establishing clear criteria, the project team can ensure that their analysis and the resulting future-proofing tool are aligned with the strategic objectives. These criteria help to filter and concentrate on trends that have the most potential to impact customer experience, revenue, innovation, and inclusivity.
Customer Experience
Improves ticketing, planning, or the journey itself to better serve passengers.
Cost Efficiency
Reduces costs while delivering value for customers and taxpayers.
Digital Innovation
Supports new technology and seamless digital integration.
Inclusivity
Ensures access for all passengers, including those with specific needs.
Strategic Fit
Aligns with FTR goals like growing revenue and simplifying the journey.
Regulatory Fit
Complies with current laws and policies.
Feasibility
Can be realistically implemented using current systems and resources.
Revenue Potential
Has strong potential to grow income and improve profitability.
What I have learn
Reflection
Using AI to Speed Up Research — But Not Replacing Critical Thinking
AI helped me quickly find relevant reports and summarise their content. It was useful for identifying key information fast, but I learned that clear research objectives are essential. AI can't replace human judgment—every insight still needed to be verified for accuracy.
Turning Trends into Action with Future-Proofing Tools
The future-proofing tool helped bridge AI-generated insights with human design thinking. It showed how designers can take trends and turn them into strategic, actionable directions. In the age of AI, our role is to give meaning and context to data.
Use Low-Fidelity Prototypes to Align on Abstract Ideas
When working with abstract or conceptual content like trends, showing low-fidelity mock-ups helped spark real conversations. Co-creating these with the client made ideas tangible and allowed us to align early, gather feedback, and iterate with clarity.
Start with a Clear Research Goal to Stay Focused
Research can easily become overwhelming. I learned the importance of setting clear goals upfront to avoid going down endless rabbit holes. Once the key question is answered, move on—research can always be revisited later if needed.