The Future of UK Railways

This project explored the future of UK rail travel—focusing on fares, ticketing, and retail. Aiming to translate global trends into customer-focused actionable insights that guide long-term strategic decisions.

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Client

UK National Rail Organisation

Deliverables

Future Trends Study, Strategic Insights, and Decision-Making Toolkit

Industry

Public Sector, Transportation

Context

2024-2025, 3 Months

Project Overview

This project explored how rail travel in the UK should evolve over the next 5–10 years. The focus was on fares, ticketing, and retail—three core areas that shape the everyday experience of rail passengers. As the industry faces rapid change, understanding future needs has become critical for designing resilient and relevant customer journeys.

About Client

The client is a national organisation responsible for shaping the future of UK rail. With the rail sector undergoing major reform, the client sought clear, actionable insights to inform strategic programmes and future-proof the passenger experience.

The Challenge

How might we translate complex global trends into actionable, customer-focused insights that support the client’s long-term strategic decision-making across multiple programs?

My Role

I worked independently on major project tasks while collaborating with the team and reporting directly to the director. I was trusted to translate complexity into clear, actionable outputs that shaped both client and leadership decisions.

Researched and synthesised 45 trend signals (out of 92 identified by the team) from 30+ credible sources → distilled into macro themes.

Drafted early mock-up reports from scratch (no prior examples) → helped the client visualise unspoken needs in workshops.
Designed and facilitated workshop materials with the team.
Took structured notes during workshops and weekly meetings → mapped insights in Miro, clustered themes, and summarised for the director’s decision-making.
Reacted quickly to client feedback and managed stakeholder tensions → balanced conflicting ideas with data-backed recommendations.
Introduced AI research methods → reduced desk research time by ~28% and upskilled the team.

Researched and synthesised 45 trend signals (out of 92 identified by the team) from 30+ credible sources → distilled into macro themes.

Drafted early mock-up reports from scratch (no prior examples) → helped the client visualise unspoken needs in workshops.
Designed and facilitated workshop materials with the team.
Took structured notes during workshops and weekly meetings → mapped insights in Miro, clustered themes, and summarised for the director’s decision-making.
Reacted quickly to client feedback and managed stakeholder tensions → balanced conflicting ideas with data-backed recommendations.
Introduced AI research methods → reduced desk research time by ~28% and upskilled the team.

Project Objectives

Help the client design future-proof customer experiences by:

Identifying key macro trends in fares, ticketing, and retail.
Translating trends into practical insights for long-term strategy.
Creating the Future-Proofing Canvas, a tool to test how well services meet future passenger needs.

Outcome 1: 2025 Macro trends report

Turning Macro Trends into Actionable Insights for Future Customer Experience Design

We distilled 92 signals into 10 high-certainty macro trends shaping customer experience and retail in rail. The insights made complex futures simple, giving the client a clear basis for long-term decision-making.

Outcome 2

The Future-Proofing Canvas

A practical tool to help client's cross- function teams evaluate how well a service proposal meets future customer needs. It enables:

Assessment of risks, opportunities, and unmet needs.
Alignment on future-readiness of propositions.
Structured decision-making across fares, ticketing, and retail.

Project impact

Equipped the client to independently assess and refine service propositions with a 5–10 year view.
Informed strategic planning and service adoption forecasts.
Fostered shared understanding of risks, opportunities, and customer needs.
Governance recommendations embedded the canvas into ongoing processes for sustained use.

"I’ve shared the Future Trends work with our tech team, and they see it as a valuable tool for assessing their projects. The carefully selected trends, along with the associated customer needs, help us focus on what truly matters when shaping future solutions."

---Propositions & Insights Lead, UK Railways

Client Quote

A simplified version of how I got there

We combined AI-empowered research with traditional desk analysis across rail and adjacent industries. Insights were co-created with the client through weekly check-ins, two online workshops, and one in-person session. This iterative process shaped the trend narrative and resulted in the Future-Proofing Canvas, ensuring tools were both evidence-based and practical for long-term use.

Trends Discovery

34 credible sources across global, transport, and rail trends were analysed, leading to the initial identification of 92 trends. These were then filtered and clustered through a prioritisation process to highlight the insights with the greatest relevance and impact for the client.

I use AI to quickly gather relevant reports, news, and other online resources, and to efficiently extract key content from them.

AI tools: ChatGPT, Google Gemini, Perplexity.ai

How we identified the most relevant trends for the client’s context

Filter system

Macro trends selection framework

We developed a two-level filter system to assess whether each trend was relevant to the client’s context, with a focus on customer and retail experience.

Filtering level 1:

Is the trend relevant to the client?

Filtering lever 2:

Level of client control
(Low / Medium / High)

Certainty of the trend

Source credibility

Appears in multiple sources?

Timeframe (Longer = more uncertainty)

Potential impact on client’s

Impact on customers

Impact on staff

Yes,

relevant to Client’s Context

Maybe?

Let’s discuss

No,

Not relevant to Client’s Context

Cluster similar trends into groups

Similar trends were then grouped into insights, which were refined into 14 initial macro trends for a review workshop with the client to gather feedback and guide further development.

Miro Board process

Why we have Mega trends and Macro trends

Defining Mega Trends and Macro Trends

To understand the future of UK railway industry, we used a two-tiered trend framework: Mega trends and Macro trends.

Mega Trends

Mega trends are long-term, global shifts—broad forces like climate change or urbanisation that shape the world over decades. They provide the big-picture context for how society, technology, and economies are evolving.

Macro Trends

Macro trends are industry-specific shifts observed over a medium-term horizon (5–10 years). They reflect how mega trends translate into more practical, near-future changes within the UK rail industry—shaping customer expectations, operations, and innovation.

How they are linked

Macro trends are built on the foundation of mega trends. For example:

This connection ensures that each macro trend is grounded in a long-term global force, but made relevant to the client’s context.

Seamless Multimodal Mobility

(Macro)

Urbanisation

(Mega)

Accelerated Technology

(Mega)

The Shift to Fluid Lifestyles

(Macro)

How we measured each trend’s relevance and impact for the client

Define Certainty Level

To build confidence in each macro trend, we followed a structured process.

We started by creating a Macro Trends Selection Framework/Criteria, which informed a filter system (Yes, Maybe, No) to identify trends relevant to client. Similar trends were clustered and shared as preliminary macro trends, each including a headline, description, and source.

We gathered feedback from FTR stakeholders to assess relevance, which helped shape the final selection.

To evaluate the certainty level, we used Google Gemini to analyse each trend across multiple factors such as:

Technological Feasibility,
Regulatory Landscape,
Market Adoption,
Economic and Social Impact
Uncertainties.

Through multiple iterations of co-creation with FTR stakeholders, we refined the trend narratives and adjusted certainty levels based on their input.

Macro trend example

What’s in a Macro Trend Card

Each macro trend card gives a clear snapshot of a trend and what it means for the Fares, Ticketing & Retail programme. The cards are designed to be easy to read and quickly show what matters most.

The Future-Proofing Canvas (Highlight a Tangible Output)

How to Use the Future-Proofing Canvas

The Future-Proofing Tool helps the client evaluate how well their solutions align with future customer needs, particularly from the perspective of customer and retail experience. It offers a lens to assess and refine solutions with a future-focused approach.

The Role of Prioritisation Criteria

Priority Criteria

Prioritisation criteria are essential to determine which macro trends are most significant and should be the focus of the future-proofing efforts. By establishing clear criteria, the project team can ensure that their analysis and the resulting future-proofing tool are aligned with the strategic objectives. These criteria help to filter and concentrate on trends that have the most potential to impact customer experience, revenue, innovation, and inclusivity.

Customer Experience

Improves ticketing, planning, or the journey itself to better serve passengers.

Cost Efficiency

Reduces costs while delivering value for customers and taxpayers.

Digital Innovation

Supports new technology and seamless digital integration.

Inclusivity

Ensures access for all passengers, including those with specific needs.

Strategic Fit

Aligns with FTR goals like growing revenue and simplifying the journey.

Regulatory Fit

Complies with current laws and policies.

Feasibility

Can be realistically implemented using current systems and resources.

Revenue Potential

Has strong potential to grow income and improve profitability.

What I have learn

Reflection

Using AI to Speed Up Research — But Not Replacing Critical Thinking

AI helped me quickly find relevant reports and summarise their content. It was useful for identifying key information fast, but I learned that clear research objectives are essential. AI can't replace human judgment—every insight still needed to be verified for accuracy.

Turning Trends into Action with Future-Proofing Tools

The future-proofing tool helped bridge AI-generated insights with human design thinking. It showed how designers can take trends and turn them into strategic, actionable directions. In the age of AI, our role is to give meaning and context to data.

Use Low-Fidelity Prototypes to Align on Abstract Ideas

When working with abstract or conceptual content like trends, showing low-fidelity mock-ups helped spark real conversations. Co-creating these with the client made ideas tangible and allowed us to align early, gather feedback, and iterate with clarity.

Start with a Clear Research Goal to Stay Focused

Research can easily become overwhelming. I learned the importance of setting clear goals upfront to avoid going down endless rabbit holes. Once the key question is answered, move on—research can always be revisited later if needed.

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@2025

liolivia210@gmail.com

Home

@2025

liolivia210@gmail.com

Home

@2025

liolivia210@gmail.com